A Study Of The Past Predicts The Next Five Presidencies
A statistical rundown of the likely political shift for future presidencies
The President of the United States (POTUS) is a significant part of the American government and an important aspect of the American peoples’ representation. For this reason, many Americans vote every four years to elect a person they trust to lead the nation into the future. Following the recent election and the change in political power from Republican to Democrat in the presidential office, I thought it would be interesting to look into the past and predict what may happen in future offices regarding party affiliation.
Background
Political parties are ever-shifting in ideologies and support of different topics so certain parties of the past may not reflect the visions of the current standing party.
The current Republican Party (GOP) has conducted many name changes over the years but was officially established in 1854 in Ripon, Wisconsin
The current Democratic Party has been a steady political party since 1928 where it was established in Baltimore, Maryland.
To preface the research ahead, the information and data collected for the study was from presidencies after the creation of the GOP as it is the second half of the two party system that we hold currently. From 1853 to 2021 is where the study’s statistics are based on for the predictions.
Presidencies from 1853–2021
The Republican Party (GOP) has statistically been the majority leader when it comes to control over the presidential position with 96 years out of the total 168 years found Republican control of the presidency.
The data also presents that over the course of nearly 170 years of political discourse there have been around 18 exchanges of political control which shows an even distribution is given with a two-party system put into place.
The longest ever that a party had control over the presidency was held by the Republican Party (GOP) from 1861–1884 starting with Abraham Lincoln and ending with Chester A. Arthur. This 24-year control by the Republican Party saw big changes to the United States but was nearly beaten by the 20-year control over the presidency by the Democratic party from 1933–1952 starting with Franklin D. Roosevelt and ending with Harry S. Truman. These leaders held major movements for each respective parties and help shape the discussion of the forecasted presidencies of the future.
Prediction
The predictions for the future elections are based upon the statistics of the past and how each party held control over the government for their respected years. The statistics do not present credibility to the parties in question or give any insight to the actual party that will take control of the office.
This being said the next five years looks to hold a Republican forward control.
2024 — Democratic Win
2028 — Republican Win
2032 — Republican Win
2036 — Republican Win
2040 — Democratic Win
For 2024’s election it looks to be a statistical advantage for the Democratic party, however, the actions of the Biden Administration will shape how the actual outcome might occur as a poor leadership or no follow-through of his actions may cause a Republican win.
To look into the control of the presidency and more information on the background of the statistics presented click here. If you agree or disagree I encourage you to respond to the article for further discussion.
